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сряда, 12 декември 2012 г.

U.S. intelligence: U.S. and China will join themselves together, people will get rich!


2/3 of the world population will live in cities by 2030. Most people are middle class related technologies protected by modern healthcare and united working together countries like the U.S. and China may be the first to set an example of cooperation.
This is the best scenario in the report, "Global Trends 2030", released by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, officials said, cited by BTA.

In the worst case, growing population led to conflict over water and food, especially in the Middle East and Africa, and contributes to instability downturn.

The forecast of U.S. intelligence on the state of the world is the main theme in the Western press. The report is published every four years and reflects the views of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. It is designed to facilitate long-term strategic planning of the new presidential administration, said the newspaper "Financial Times".

New intelligence assessment of global trends predicted that China will overtake the U.S. as the first economic power before 2030, but the United States will remain vital world leader, supported in part by the era of energy independence, writes the newspaper "New York Times".

Russia's influence will decline and economic power of other countries that rely on oil for revenue, says the assessment. "There will be no hegemonic power. Authority will be transferred to the networks and coalitions in a multipolar world," said the study of 166 pages.

One of the remarkable developments that predict the dissemination of financial security which will result in numerous global middle class with a good level of education and greater access to technology such as the internet and smartphones. "For the first time the majority of the world's population will be poor and the middle class will be the most important social and economic factor in the vast majority of countries around the world," said the study.

The forecast also warns that half the people probably lived in areas with severe water shortages, which means that the management of natural resources will be a critical component of national security globally.

At least 15 countries have a "high risk of state collapse" by 2030, study predicts. These include Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda and Yemen, says "New York Times". The report notes that the world is "at a critical moment in human history," writes the newspaper "The Guardian".

"Collapse or sudden withdrawal of U.S. influence is likely to lead to a long period of global anarchy. Probably no driving force will replace the U.S. as the guarantor of international order," said the report, which assumes that the U.S. is a factor of stability - allowing to be challenged in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East and other regions, the newspaper notes.

"The health of the global economy is increasingly linked to the condition of the developing world, far more than the situation in the traditional West. Besides China, India and Brazil, the regional players such as Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey will be particularly important for global economy. Meanwhile the economies of Europe, Japan and Russia will likely continue its slow relative decline, "the report said.

Among the unlikely but possible events are the collapse of the euro, severe pandemics and nuclear attack from Pakistan or North Korea. It is also noted that a democratic China or broken up, or the emergence of a more liberal regime in Iran could have a significant impact on global stability.

Assessment of intelligence will increase pressure on Barack Obama to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because the president supports the view that this problem fueled instability in the Middle East with the alleged effort by Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.

The study, however, said that the Arab Spring can be a stabilizing force. "On the one hand, if the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to manage and be able to develop nuclear weapons, the Middle East will face very unstable future. Moreover, democratic governments or breach of an agreement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may have very positive impact, "said a U.S. intelligence report quoted by" The Guardian ".

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